The Middle Eastern country's fragile religion-based power-sharing system has led to institutional deadlock
Fighters of the Lebanese Shia movement Hezbollah take part in a parade to mark the 22nd anniversary of the Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon in Baalbek in the Bekaa Valley on May 25. (Photo: AFP)
By Ben Joseph
After years of political and economic turmoil, Lebanon is in the process of cobbling together a new government. But it is not expected to be completed for some time because of international interference and the country’s fragile religion-based power-sharing system.
Lebanese people exercised their franchise in the dark in the May 15 national election. It was the first election since the government resigned in August 2020 following national outrage over a devastating explosion in capital Beirut that killed at least 200 people.
An economic crisis followed in the Mediterranean nation, making essential items much dearer, medicines in short supply and blackouts the order of the day. Poverty and political struggles continue a seeming competition for the upper hand.
General elections come every four years. Between the elections of 2018 and 2022, two out of four years were allotted to caretaker governments. The latest technocratic government of billionaire Najib Mikati has been at the helm since September 2021.
Lebanon’s institutional deadlock will put spokes into the much-needed reforms called for by the International Monetary Fund to implement a package by spring 2023.
Government formation could be delayed as powerful nations like Israel, Saudi Arabia, the US and Iran are jostling for power as the former French colony faces multiple emergencies. France is Lebanon’s traditional ally due to historical, cultural, political and economic links, underpinned by the French language.
Hezbollah is a major political and military force in one of the smallest nations in the Middle East. It acts as a parallel state and has the ability to provide services when the state cannot
As poll results trickled in at the end of May, Cardinal Bechara Boutros al-Rahi, patriarch of the Maronite Catholic Church, the largest Christian denomination in the country, hosted the Saudi ambassador in his residence in Beirut to discuss the implications of Lebanon’s new political map.
Christians, constituting some 32 percent of Lebanon’s 6.7 million people, continue to be politically decisive.
The biggest winner of the May 15 polls was the Christian Lebanese Forces party, which favors disarming the militant Iran-backed Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shia Islamist party.
The Lebanese Forces party scorns Hezbollah and its leader Samir Geagea, one of the most feared warlords during the 1975-90 civil war, and has already said that Lebanon needs a "radical change of power" to solve its problems.
President Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement, another Christian political party and a Hezbollah ally, failed to be the country’s largest Christian parliamentary bloc as it gained only 18 seats, two fewer than the Lebanese Forces.
Hezbollah is a major political and military force in one of the smallest nations in the Middle East. It acts as a parallel state and has the ability to provide services when the state cannot. Acting as a bulwark against enemy Israel and Western intervention, the Iran-backed group finds its legitimacy in the country.
It has already warned its rivals against becoming “shields for the Israelis.” The group commands thousands of active fighters and is called the world’s most heavily armed non-state actor.
Hezbollah is set to influence the formation of the new government and the election of a new president in place of Michel Aoun in October. He will be 89 by then.
Hariri’s supporters fear that the vacuum created by his departure will allow Hezbollah to expand its influence in Beirut, Sidon, Tripoli and other key cities
Under the power-sharing system agreed upon after Lebanon’s 15-year civil war, the prime minister has to be a Sunni Muslim. However, former prime minister Saad Hariri and his Future Movement party boycotted the election.
Hariri’s supporters fear that the vacuum created by his departure will allow Hezbollah to expand its influence in Beirut, Sidon, Tripoli, and other key cities.
The emergence of the Lebanese Forces with close ties to Saudi Arabia, the lack of an outright winner, and Lebanon's rigid power-sharing political structure remain stumbling blocks to undertaking significant changes and will further polarize Lebanese politics.
The new house faced its first trial by fire when it selected the new speaker, who by convention has to be a Shia Muslim. The house last week elected Nabih Berri as the speaker for the seventh time.
The general election took place as Lebanon, bordered by Israel to the south and Syria to the north, experiences one of its worst economic depressions in more than 150 years. More than 80 percent of the population now live in poverty with severe shortages of food, fuel and medicines as the lira has lost over 90 percent of its value since 2019.
Lebanon is already burdened with the world’s biggest refugee population per capita. It is hosting an estimated 1.5 million refugees following the outbreak of the Syrian Civil War.
The pandemic compounded its problems as it was limping back to normalcy after the devastating explosion at Beirut's port in 2020. The official investigation into the tragedy is stalled as politicians fail to turn up to give evidence. A government-approved panel failed amid stiff resistance from Hezbollah and the Shia Amal Movement. Lebanese hope the new government will move the investigation forward.
Pope Francis was supposed to arrive in Lebanon on June 12 but the visit was canceled because of his ill health. The pope wanted to have a proper government in the country before his visit. Lebanon has miles to go to achieve a stable government to restore normalcy in the country.
However, Lebanon stands as an example of coexistence between Christians and Muslims. As Pope Francis said, Lebanon is “a universal message of peace and fraternity arising from the Middle East.”
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